Moody's sees India's GDP expanding 6%-6.3% in Q1FY24, flags risks of fiscal slippage, high govt debt

Moody’s Investors Service Associate Managing Director Jean Fang said in an interview with news agency that India’s general government debt will be around 81.8% of GDP in 2022 and 23 and the country will have less debt carrying capacity.

Moody's sees India's GDP expanding 6%-6.3% in Q1FY24, flags risks of fiscal slippage, high govt debt


New Delhi : Credit rating company Moody’s said on Sunday that the Indian economy is expected to grow 6-6.3 per cent in the second quarter of current financial year and there is a risk of fiscal slippage as government revenue is lower than expected this fiscal. Moody’s growth forecast is lower than the 8% estimate made by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the main quarter a week ago.

Moody’s Investors Service Associate Managing Director Jean Fang said in an interview with news agency that India’s general government debt will be around 81.8% of GDP in 2022 and 23 and the country will have less debt carrying capacity. He also said India has high growth potential and its debt assets include a stable domestic support base for government obligations as well as a strong external position. “While domestic demand may see a recovery given both headline and core inflation readings are under control, the lingering effects of higher loan fees represent some risks, particularly on fixed capital formation,” Fang said.

Fang said that as a “BAA3” rated sovereign, India’s wealth lies in its vast and differentiated economy with high growth potential, evident in the somewhat solid growth figures this year despite a weak global economic outlook. He said the concerns regarding fiscal policy have eased with the achievement of its fiscal objectives by the government in the last two years. From 6.7% of GDP in 2021-22, the fiscal deficit, or the difference between government spending and revenue, has come down to 6.4% in 2022-23.

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