Recent data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that the transition has not officially taken place yet.
“Only the United States, China, and Germany are ahead of us,” Subrahmanyam said. “If we continue along the current trajectory, we are poised to become the third-largest economy within the next two and a half to three years.”
However, recent data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that the transition has not officially taken place yet. According to the IMF's April 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook, India is projected to surpass Japan in 2025, not 2024.
IMF Data Suggests the Transition Is Close — But Not Yet
While India and Japan are now neck and neck in nominal GDP terms, the IMF estimates show that India still slightly trails Japan as of 2024. The IMF projects India will officially move into the fourth position in 2025, based on its latest forecast.
In addition, the IMF predicts that India will surpass Germany by the end of 2028, becoming the third-largest economy in the world, behind only the United States and China.
India's Economic Growth Outlook
According to the IMF, India's GDP is expected to grow by: 6.2% in 2026, and 6.3% in 2027. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is slightly more optimistic, projecting a 6.5% growth rate in 2026.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is scheduled to release detailed GDP growth data for the fourth quarter of FY 2024–25 and the full fiscal year on May 30, 2025.
HIGHLIGHTS
NITI Aayog CEO claims India has overtaken Japan in 2024.
IMF data suggests the shift will officially occur in 2025.
India’s economy is on track to become the third-largest by 2028.
GDP growth remains strong, with projections above 6%.
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